The pace of capital gains across Australian housing markets has been close to record breaking, with the national growth rate in March the fastest since 1988.
Such exuberant conditions have been driven by a multitude of factors including record low mortgage rates, a stunning surge in consumer confidence as the economic recovery beats expectations, a range of additional stimulus measures which have incentivised home buying and building, and persistently low advertised inventory levels which has created a renewed sense of FOMO amongst buyers.
But… there are some early signs the exuberance in the housing market may be peaking. This isn’t to say housing values are about reverse; a more likely scenario is the housing market is moving through a peak rate of growth and the pace of capital gains will gradually taper over coming months.
The first clear sign of a slowing in the pace of growth comes from CoreLogic’s daily reading of home values. The daily update of CoreLogic’s benchmark measure of housing values, the hedonic Home Value Index, is showing a clear and broad based slowdown in the rate of housing value growth; a trend that has been evident since late March.